Picks

DraftKings NFL Week 4 Sleeper Picks 2017

Again it was one of those weeks with my DraftKings picks where I did pretty good overall, but had a few poor picks. Scoring was down at DraftKings in Week 3 because of some popular plays scoring few points, so if you took some of my picks you probably managed to cash. My cash game team had 5 of my 7 picks and won 95%+ of my head to heads.  Let’s take a look at my picks from last week before diving into my favorite early DraftKings NFL Week 4 picks.

Good picks – Rodgers, Bell, Matthews, Colts
Average picks – Crowder, Adams
Bad picks – Doyle

We now move onto Week 4 of the NFL season.  It seems like the first month has flown by, and before we know it the NFL season will be winding down, so enjoy it while it lasts!

Below are my DraftKings NFL Week 4 picks, which includes a few sleeper picks as well.  Take note that DraftKings has changed the main slate of contests to exclude the Sunday Night football game.  Because of that, I will be playing more of the Thursday-Monday contests at DraftKings as they’ve been growing.

Picks for DraftKings NFL Week 4 2017

QUARTERBACK + WIDE RECEIVER STACK

Dak Prescott (DAL) $6,200 + Dez Bryant $6,500

The Cowboys return home after a Monday Night Football win in Arizona, and will host the Los Angeles Rams as 6 point favorites.  The total is set at 47 points right now, making the Cowboys implied team total a fairly high 26.5 points.  Dak Prescott looked great in a Week 3 win, although he wasn’t forced to throw the ball a lot.  He completed 13 of 18 pass attempts for 183 yards and 2 TDs, and also added 16 yards rushing and another TD on the ground for a DraftKings score of 22.92 points.  So far this year he has scored 17, 17 and 22 DraftKings points against three solid defenses (ARI, NYG, DEN).  Prescott has scored 20+ DraftKings points in 8 of his 19 full games played, and at least 17 DraftKings points in 14 of 19 games.  Pairing him with Dez Bryant makes this a great stack, with Dez down to just $6,500 from $7,500 in Week 1.  Remember, Dez has faced Janoris Jenkins and the Giants, Aqib Talib and the Broncos, and Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals through 3 weeks.  He has scored 6, 18 and 9 DraftKings points over those three games.  Although he only received 2 targets last week with Prescott not throwing the ball much, he did receive 16 and 9 targets in the first two weeks of the season.  Bryant scored 20+ DraftKings points 6 times last year in 13 full games played.  This is my quarterback + wide receiver pick of the week at DraftKings for Week 4.

RUNNING BACKS

LeSean McCoy (BUF) $8,400

After a good start to the season at home vs the Jets where McCoy put up 110 rushing yards and 23.9 DraftKings points, he has been quiet the past two weeks with just 10.3 and 13.9 DraftKings points.  With that said, he was facing two of the better defenses over the past two weeks in the Panthers and the Broncos.  He now gets the Falcons, who are 28th in the NFL in yards against per rushing attempt, and this game has a total set at 48.5 points (Bills are 8 point underdogs but expected to score around 20 points).  McCoy is heavily involved in the passing game as well, with 6, 7, and 7 targets in his first three games (and 5+ catches in each).  He has yet to break out a play for more than 27 yards, but he’s definitely capable of scoring a long TD to help him put up a high DraftKings score.  Shady put up 28 or more DraftKings points 6 times last season.

Kareem Hunt (KC) $8,500 

This is a play for the DraftKings Week 4 Thursday to Monday contests, with the Chiefs hosting the Redskins on Monday Night football.  The Chiefs are 6.5 point favorites in a game with a total set at 49.5 points.  Kansas City has an implied team total at 28 points.  One of the reasons I will be playing the DraftKings contests that run for the full week is because of Kareem Hunt, who has been dominant to start his rookie season.  So far over three games, he has scored 49, 25, and 28 DraftKings points.  Yes, it did take him a long late TD to put up a big DraftKings score in Week 3, but he still got it done and I don’t see him slowing down.  The Redskins do rank 7th in yards against per rushing attempt, but that includes games vs the Eagles and Raiders, who haven’t gotten much going in their running games.  Their other opponent was the Rams, with Todd Gurley putting up 5.5 yards per rushing attempt against them.  Hunt is also involved in the passing game with an average of 3 receptions per game.  His chances of scoring a TD are very high on Monday Night being the feature back for a team expected to score around 28 points, so I will be playing Hunt in some Week 4 DraftKings lineups.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tyrell Wiliams (LAC) $4,400

This is more of a risky play, but one that I like given the cheap price of Tyrell Williams.  The Chargers will host the Eagles as half a point favorites, with a higher total at 47.5 points.  The Eagles have a good defense, but are still just 19th in passing yards against per attempt and 25th in passing yards against per game.  Dealing with some injuries, they are coming off a game where they gave up 366 yards and 3 touchdowns to Eli Manning.  I will be monitoring the injuries in the Eagles secondary, and if they’re back healthy I may limit exposure to Chargers pass catchers, but if they’re hurting again I like Williams and Keenan Allen.  Williams has scored just 10, 9 and 3 DraftKings points, but he’s been targeted 7, 4, and 7 times and has played 93.7% of the snaps.  I want some exposure to Williams on DraftKings in Week 4, who might be my favorite sleeper pick this week.

Jaron Brown (ARI) $4,000

This pick depends on the health of John Brown and J.J. Nelson this week, but if either of those guys are out, or both are limited leading up to Sunday, I think Jaron Brown becomes a great play at $4,000 on DraftKings.  Make sure you’re subscribed to my emails here for updates on this pick.  The Cardinals will host the 49ers on Sunday, who are 16th in passing yards against per attempt and have given up 6 TDs through the air so far this year.  Even including Week 1 when John Brown played, Jaron Brown has played in 81.5% of the Cardinals offensive snaps.  He didn’t see a target in Week 1, but saw 11 targets in Week 2 where he caught 4 passes for 73 yards and 6 targets in Week 3 where he caught 2 passes for 27 yards and a touchdown.  He has also seen 4 red zone targets in the last two games as well.  If he can increase his 35% rate of catching targets, which I think is likely, I could see him putting up a solid DraftKings score in Week 4 in a good matchup vs the 49ers.

TIGHT END

Jesse James (PIT) $3,000

James was injured for a bit of the Steelers Week 3 game vs the Bears, but still played in 72% of the offensive snaps.  Overall he has been in on 86.4% of the snaps for the Steelers offense.  Over the first three games he has seen 8, 5, and 4 targets.  He has only had one good DraftKings scoring game in Week 1 where he put up 22 DraftKings points, but I like his chances of having a nice Sunday against the Ravens in Week 4.  Baltimore currently ranks 25th in DraftKings points against to Tight Ends this year.  Big Ben likes throwing to his Tight Ends in the red zone, and James already has 4 red zone targets through his first 3 games played.  I will be looking to save money at the Tight End position for DraftKings Week 4 contests, and Jesse James is one of my favorite sleeper picks of the week.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Bengals $3,500

The Bengals will host the Browns in Week 4, and my strategy of targeting defenses playing the Browns is going to continue.  The Begnals have been pretty solid defensively overall, ranking 6th in yards against per play, and 10th in passing yards against per attempt.  They have faced below average offenses in the Ravens and Texans, but will get another below average offense at home this week.  Cleveland ranks 16th in yards per game on offense this year, but just 22nd in yards per play.  Rookie QB Deshone Kizer has thrown 7 interceptions and has been sacked 10 times through 3 games.  The Begnals are my top DraftKings defense for Week 4, although they probably won’t be a sleeper pick in such a great spot.

Those wrap up my DraftKings NFL Week 4 picks for 2017, with a few sneaky picks or sleeper plays thrown in as well.  Make sure you do me a huge favor and hit the thumbs up button on my YouTube video if you’re enjoying the picks.  Good luck this week!

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